The Patriots Portfolio: treating Guyana’s national developments as investment opportunities since we had nothing better to do. Not financial advice. Not any kind of advice, actually.
📈 BUY
Oil at US$100/barrel Guyana produces oil. Oil is at $100 a barrel. The math here is straightforward. Whether the math reaches your pocket is a separate and more complicated calculation, but the macro position is strong. We are bullish on the barrel. We are cautiously optimistic about the trickle-down. We remain watchful for the trickle. Confidence: High. Arrival timeline: TBD.
The Court of Appeal’s consistency The Mohameds have now lost at every level they have appealed to, with increasing costs awarded against them. The judicial process, however slow, is producing a consistent result. For those invested in the principle that the legal system should eventually reach a conclusion, this week was a positive development. The conclusion is approaching. Slowly. But approaching. Confidence: High. Patience required.
Kaieteur News With Stabroek News now closed, Kaieteur stands alone as the country’s only independent newspaper. This is simultaneously good news for Kaieteur’s market position and deeply concerning for everyone else. We are buying Kaieteur’s relevance. We are holding our concerns about what it means to have one independent voice in a country with this much going on. Confidence: Medium. Strategic importance: Maximum.
📉 SELL
The digital platform for cash grant distribution It does not yet exist. The grant exists. The promise exists. The platform remains conceptual. Patriots Portfolio recommends divesting from timelines that have not been announced for things that have not been built. We wish the platform well. We will believe in it when it has a URL. Current value: Theoretical.
Waiting for the windfall tax Kaieteur News calculates US$9 million more per day is available if a 25% windfall tax were applied at current oil prices. It has not been applied. The conversation about whether it should be applied continues. Patriots Portfolio is selling the conversation and waiting for the policy. Conversations do not appear in the national budget. Opportunity cost: US$9M/day and counting.
⏸️ HOLD
Minister Edghill at the Uruguay summit Regional infrastructure diplomacy is worth attending. Whether it produces anything tangible for Guyanese roads specifically is the question. Patriots Portfolio is holding. Montevideo is far. We will check back when he lands. Status: In transit. Review pending.
The 50+ families at Friendship, EBD This is listed under HOLD not because we are indifferent, but because the situation requires watching. APNU has called for intervention. The government has not yet responded with specifics. Patriots Portfolio does not invest in eviction, but we are tracking the response. People’s homes are not a portfolio item. They are, however, a measure of what a government prioritises. Human impact: Real. Resolution: Awaited.
The Patriots Portfolio is satirical commentary. It is not investment advice, legal advice, or advice of any kind. Do not make financial decisions based on this column. Do not make life decisions based on this column. Do consult an actual professional for actual things.