📈 PATRIOTS PORTFOLIO
Tracking the Business of Guyana
Week of March 24, 2026
MARKET MOOD: CAUTIOUSLY OPTIMISTIC
Global oil prices are elevated due to Middle East instability, which is — depending on who you ask — either very good for Guyana or very complicated for Guyana. The answer, as usual, is both.
THIS WEEK’S MAIN MOVES
🛢️ EXXON: THE YELLOWTAIL PRODUCTION REQUEST
ExxonMobil has formally applied to the Government of Guyana to increase production at the Yellowtail FPSO from 263,000 barrels per day to 290,000 barrels per day. Application is currently under government review.
The numbers context:
| Project | Designed Capacity | Current Production |
|---|---|---|
| Liza One | 120,000 bpd | ~130,000 bpd |
| Liza Two | 220,000 bpd | ~263,000 bpd |
| Payara | 220,000 bpd | 260,000+ bpd |
| Yellowtail | 250,000 bpd | 263,000 bpd (requesting 290,000) |
The pattern is clear: Exxon designs for X, gets approved for X, produces more than X, requests approval for even more X. Every single project. The government has approved past debottlenecking requests. Market observers expect this one will likely follow the same path.
With global oil prices elevated: Every additional barrel Guyana produces at current prices generates meaningfully more revenue than a barrel produced at pre-conflict prices. The timing of this request is not accidental.
Total Guyana production is now past 900,000 barrels per day across all projects. A fifth FPSO vessel is en route. The trajectory toward 1 million bpd continues.
💰 THE NATURAL RESOURCE FUND: WATCHING THE NUMBER
With oil at current elevated prices and production over 900,000 bpd, the Natural Resource Fund is receiving substantial inflows. Specific current balance figures are not available to us this week, but the directional trend is upward.
President Ali has been pushing oil companies to cut profit margins as prices rise. Whether this results in any formal renegotiation or is purely rhetorical positioning remains to be seen. Exxon has indicated that higher prices actually mean Guyana gets a larger profit share sooner under existing arrangements — which is technically accurate under the production-sharing contract mechanics.
Patriots Portfolio position: The contract terms are what they are. The profit share mechanism does benefit Guyana at higher prices. The bigger structural question — whether the original contract terms were optimal — is a separate debate that predates current management.
🏛️ THE MOHAMEDS AND BUSINESS CONFIDENCE
The Mohameds’ extradition matter has now reached the Caribbean Court of Justice. A Case Management Conference is scheduled for March 25.
Why does this matter to the business community?
Regulatory signal: How Guyana handles US extradition requests for alleged financial crimes sends a signal to international investors about the country’s commitment to anti-money-laundering and financial crime frameworks.
US relationship: Guyana’s relationship with US energy companies (including Exxon) and US financial institutions depends in part on being seen as a reliable partner on law enforcement cooperation.
The Mohameds’ business empire: The alleged activities — gold export fraud, customs violations, luxury vehicle import schemes — touch sectors that remain active areas of concern for Guyana’s revenue collection. How this case concludes has implications for enforcement confidence in those sectors.
The OFAC sanctions on the Mohameds have already effectively removed them from the formal financial system. The extradition outcome will determine whether US prosecution follows.
⚡ FUEL STABILITY: A BUSINESS POSITIVE
GUYOIL confirmed this week that domestic fuel prices are holding steady despite elevated global oil prices due to the Middle East conflict. This matters for:
- Transport costs: Businesses dependent on fuel (logistics, agriculture, construction) are not facing immediate input cost increases.
- Consumer spending: Stable fuel prices help contain broader inflationary pressure.
- Competitive positioning: Guyana’s oil refinery argument — made again this week by President Ali — becomes more compelling when global price shocks demonstrate the value of domestic processing capacity.
🏦 DEMERARA BANK: NEW ECD BRANCH
Demerara Bank opened a new branch at Beterverwagting on the East Coast, relocating from Le Ressouvenir. The new facility expands banking access along the ECD corridor — relevant for financial inclusion goals and for the cash grant digital transfer rollout.
PATRIOTS PORTFOLIO SCORECARD — THIS WEEK
| Sector | Trend | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Oil production | ↑ | Yellowtail increase application filed |
| Oil prices | ↑ | Elevated due to Middle East |
| NRF inflows | ↑ | Following production + price trends |
| Domestic fuel prices | → | Stable, GUYOIL confirmed |
| Business confidence | → | Steady, CCJ watch |
| Banking access | ↑ | New Demerara Bank branch |
LOOKING AHEAD
March 25: CCJ Case Management Conference — Mohameds extradition
This month: Government review of Exxon’s Yellowtail production increase application
Ongoing: Fifth FPSO vessel expected to arrive; start-up would add ~250,000 bpd when commissioned
Patriots Portfolio tracks Guyana’s economic and business landscape weekly. All analysis is commentary. Not financial advice. Not investment advice. Do your own research.