The Patriots Portfolio — for Guyanese who care where the money goes and where it comes from. Every Friday.

THE WEEK IN GUYANA’S ECONOMIC PICTURE

The 38% Tariff: What It Actually Means

Let’s be precise. The Trump administration’s “reciprocal” tariff imposes 38% on Guyanese exports to the United States. The baseline for most Caribbean nations is 10%. Guyana’s higher rate is almost certainly driven by the US trade deficit with Guyana — which exists because the US buys significant volumes of Guyanese oil.

Here is the irony: the oil that Exxon extracts from Guyana’s waters, processes, and sells — some of which flows back to the US — is part of what created the trade imbalance that triggered the tariff. Guyana is being penalised, in part, for having oil that American companies profit from.

Practical impact areas to watch:

  • Rice and agricultural exports — Guyanese rice exports to the US, while not the primary market, will face significantly higher costs.
  • Gold — Guyana’s gold exports are largely destined for markets outside the US. Limited direct impact here.
  • Oil — Crude oil pricing is complex. Watch how the Stabroek consortium structures its sale arrangements.
  • Diaspora remittances — Tariffs don’t directly affect remittances, but if US economic conditions worsen due to trade war fallout, remittance volumes could soften.

The CPSO is right that proper analysis is needed before panic. But 38% is not a rounding error.

The Wales Gas Plant: A Hidden US$82M Liability

The revelation that Guyana lost an arbitration to Gas-to-Energy contractors Lindsayca-CH4 and quietly paid US$82 million raises serious questions beyond the money itself.

The original Wales GTE contract was US$759 million, awarded December 2022. The project has faced consistent delays. The arbitration loss and subsequent payment add to a ballooning cost that Guyanese taxpayers are ultimately funding through the Natural Resource Fund.

What patriots should be asking:

  • What is the current total projected cost of the Wales GTE project?
  • What are the revised completion timelines?
  • Who represented Guyana in the arbitration and what was the strategic weakness that led to the loss?
  • Will there be a parliamentary review?

Prime Minister Phillips has staked December 2026 as the power delivery date. Every delay and every cost overrun makes that promise more expensive and more fragile.

Exxon Exits Canje, Confirms Two New Stabroek Discoveries

The Canje Block exit after three dry wells is a setback but not a catastrophe. The Stabroek Block — where production is now approaching one million barrels per day — remains the engine of Guyana’s oil economy. Exxon’s simultaneous announcement of two new Stabroek appraisal completions signals continued confidence in the core asset.

The fifth FPSO vessel is on its way. Production will continue to grow. The Canje chapter closes; the Stabroek chapter continues.

The Green Corner: Project FLOW

Clean water to 155 schools. This is infrastructure investment that pays dividends in health outcomes, school attendance, and long-term human capital development. It is the kind of quiet, unglamorous investment that matters more over twenty years than any ribbon-cutting ceremony. Patriots should note it, support it, and demand that it is maintained.

Bottom Line This Week

Guyana is simultaneously navigating a 38% US tariff, a secret US$82M arbitration loss, an Exxon block exit, and approaching one million barrels per day of oil production. The economy is strong enough to absorb shocks. But the shocks are real, and transparency about them is not optional — it is a patriotic requirement.

Watch the tariff negotiations. Demand answers on the gas plant. Keep faith in the athletes in Grenada.

Patriots Portfolio publishes every Friday. Not financial advice. Just Guyanese economic literacy.