Good Friday morning to all the serious money in Guyana. Finance Ferrari here with your weekly read on where the smart rupees are flowing, where the dumb rupees are flowing, and where the rupees are just gone — possibly into a “Be!” Pay wallet that no longer opens.

Let’s get into it.

📈 HOT THIS WEEK: Gas Cylinders and Canned Goods

Following President Ali’s announcement that cross-sector price increases are coming, the Patriots Portfolio panel has observed an unusual uptick in panic-buying across Georgetown and the East Coast. Specifically:

  • Gas cylinders — retailers on the East Bank report a 400% increase in cylinder refills this week. Three households are reportedly storing cylinders “for insurance.”
  • Canned sardines — Bounty Supermarket has had two shipments cleared in three days. One customer purchased 48 cans. When asked why, she replied, “Better safe than saltfish.”
  • Rice — parboiled 45-kg bags have quietly increased by $600. Nobody has announced this increase. It just happened. This is how real inflation works.

Patriots Recommendation: If you were going to buy canned sardines anyway, buy them now. If you were not going to buy canned sardines, do not start now just because your neighbor did.

📉 COLD THIS WEEK: The “Be!” Payment App

Caripay Inc.’s “Be!” payment app has shut down operations without warning. Customers who had balances in the app now have balances in the app that they cannot access. The app is showing a perpetual loading spinner. The spinner has been spinning since Tuesday.

Patriots Portfolio Historical Analysis:

We at the Portfolio have been quietly skeptical of “Be!” since its 2024 launch, when it was advertised with the slogan “Your money, but fun.” This is not a slogan a serious financial instrument uses. A serious financial instrument uses slogans like “Your money, but insured.”

The warning signs were there:

  • The founder’s LinkedIn profile listed his previous experience as “entrepreneur, visionary, musician.”
  • The app’s terms of service were three paragraphs long.
  • The company’s office was above a barbershop.
  • Their customer support email was a Gmail address.

Lesson for Investors: If a fintech’s branding involves an exclamation point, reduce your exposure. If it involves an emoji, exit entirely.

🔥 INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY: The CANU Seizure Hedge

Novel financial instrument alert. With CANU announcing $190M in drug seizures in Q1, enterprising analysts have begun speculating on CANU’s Q2-Q4 performance. Street-level predictive markets have emerged on the following bets:

  • Over/Under 180M in Q2 seizures: Market is leaning Over.
  • Will a CANU officer be arrested himself this quarter? Market is 70% Yes.
  • Will any of the seized drugs reappear in the domestic market within 90 days? Market is 85% Yes.

Patriots Recommendation: We do not endorse street-level predictive markets. We acknowledge that street-level predictive markets have better forecasting accuracy than the IMF. Draw your own conclusions.

💼 CORPORATE CORNER: Citizens Bank Cuts Mortgage Rates

Citizens Bank Guyana Inc. announced a reduction in home mortgage interest rates this week. This is a genuinely good move for buyers who were sitting on the fence.

Patriots Analysis:

  • Current 25-year mortgage rate: competitive with regional peers
  • Citizens’ positioning: aggressive, likely to pressure Republic and GBTI to respond
  • Timing: strategically ahead of the anticipated price increase cycle

Patriots Recommendation: If you have been pre-approved and have been dragging your feet, this is the week. Rates can go down again, but given the global macro environment and the US-Iran situation, the more likely direction is up within 6 months.

🛢️ ENERGY WATCH: Oil Prices, Gas Stations, and the Disconnect

Oil prices have dropped 8% since the US-Iran ceasefire. Gasoline prices at the pump in Guyana have dropped 0%. The disconnect is being investigated by the same consultants who forecasted the original increase. We await their conclusions with appropriate skepticism.

Meanwhile, ExxonMobil has declined to renew its prospective oil license for exploration block C. This is a genuine development. Analysts are divided on whether it signals strategic repositioning or a cooling of Exxon’s appetite for further Guyana expansion. The honest answer is “we don’t know yet, but Exxon rarely walks away from anything without a reason.”

Patriots Watch: Energy sector stocks in the region — especially those exposed to Guyana-based exploration and service contracts — may see volatility in the coming quarter. Not a recommendation. Just a heads-up.

🥥 COMMODITY OF THE WEEK: Onions, for Real

2,000 bags of Region 9 onions were shipped to Georgetown this week, which has stabilized retail onion prices at the Stabroek Market level for the first time since January. The Region 9 onion growers have emerged as an unlikely macroeconomic force, and we salute them.

Patriots Observation: Agricultural import substitution works when it is actually funded and actually coordinated. Region 9 is a demonstration. It is not yet a pattern. We are watching.

🎯 THIS WEEK’S PATRIOTS PICKS

  1. Buy: Fixed-income exposure in Guyanese local currency instruments. The rate environment is about to shift.
  2. Hold: Real estate in Georgetown secondary neighborhoods (Kitty, Lamaha Gardens, Cummings Lodge). Prices are flat. Fundamentals are strong.
  3. Sell: Any remaining “Be!” Pay balance. Yes, we know. We are sorry.
  4. Avoid: Any new fintech with an exclamation point, an emoji, or a visionary-musician founder.

That’s the Portfolio for Friday, April 17. Go make responsible decisions. Or at least more responsible decisions than whoever invested in “Be!” Pay.

— Finance Ferrari, for the Patriots Portfolio desk